Expected goals models have been developed in a number of sports to better predict future performance. For sports like hockey and soccer where goals are inherently random and scarce, expected goals models proved to be particularly useful at predicting future scoring. This is because they take into account shot attempts, which are better predictors of a team and player’s performance than goal totals alone. The three Black players combined on the goal for the Anaheim Ducks’ AHL affiliate; it was a feat so rare, league officials aren’t sure if it ever happened before in the AHL’s 89-year history. xG also predicts future goals better than (score-adjusted) CF% and GF% at the player level. A comparison of Figures 1 and 2 shows that xG’s higher correlations can be appreciated sooner than for xG at the team-level. As early as the 10-game mark, xG outperforms previous models:
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